Tropical Storm Vance is weakening offshore but continues to pose a risk of heavy rain, flooding, mudslides and dangerous surf along parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast.
The US National Hurricane Center’s 2pm MST advisory on 27 October placed Vance about 290 miles (465km) west-south-west of Manzanillo. The storm was moving north-west at 9mph (15km/h), with maximum sustained winds of 40mph (65km/h). No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.
Forecasters expect Vance to turn gradually north over the next two days, moving towards the entrance of the Gulf of California. Increasing wind shear is expected to weaken the system further, with the storm likely to become post-tropical within about 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low within roughly 60 hours.
Despite the weakening system, the rainfall threat remains significant. Vance is forecast to produce between two and four inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango and north-western Nayarit through Thursday. Isolated totals of up to seven inches are possible in central and southern Sinaloa, where steep terrain could increase the risk of flooding and mudslides.
Swells generated by the storm are also expected to affect southern, south-western and west-central Mexico. The National Hurricane Center warned that the resulting surf and rip currents could become life-threatening.
The immediate risks are greatest for coastal excursions, swimming, surfing, boat trips and road journeys through mountainous areas. Hotels and tour operators in affected destinations should monitor local weather updates and review marine activities. There were no reports of airport closures or a direct landfall in the latest advisory, but travellers should check conditions before setting out.
